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Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 12% confidence · analysed Sep 14, 2026
This analysis is from Sep 14, 2026 and may be out of date.
On Sep 14, 2026, our model rated Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) WEAK BUY with 12% confidence at a price of $19.78. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 38. Momentum is soft: below the neutral 50 line, but not yet oversold.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.
Volume is only 0.2x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $20.07 and the swing low is $16.97; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bullish order block, a zone where large buyers stepped in before.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 3.72, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 30.9% and revenue growth of +3.1%.
In its latest quarter it earned $0.47 per share, which matched the $0.47 analysts expected, with revenue -46.2% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 1.7 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $20.77.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 27, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $19.81, a target of $20.08 (+1.4%) and a stop-loss at $19.37 (-2.2%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.6 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Sep 24, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.12 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 38.46, MACD bearish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 3.72, margin 30.9%, revenue growth 3.1%. Financial results: YoY revenue -46.2%, last EPS surprise +0.0%, next earnings 2026-10-27. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, price retesting a bullish order block, price retesting a bearish order block, sitting inside an unfilled bearish fair value gap. FinGPT news read: positive. Suggested levels: entry $19.81, target $20.08, stop-loss $19.37, exit by 2026-09-24 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for ARCC
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 12% | $19.78 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is ARCC a buy right now?
As of Sep 14, 2026, our automated model rates Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) WEAK BUY with 12% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for ARCC?
The model's most recent plan targets $20.08 with a stop-loss at $19.37, from an entry near $19.81.
When does Ares Capital Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 27, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.