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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc (NXRT) stock analysis
WEAK SELL 17% confidence · analysed Sep 14, 2026
This analysis is from Sep 14, 2026 and may be out of date.
On Sep 14, 2026, our model rated NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc (NXRT) WEAK SELL with 17% confidence at a price of $22.38. That means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 26, below 30, which is oversold territory: sellers have pushed hard recently. Oversold stocks often bounce, but they can stay weak for a while.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of a downtrend.
Volume is only 0.2x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure shows a bearish break of structure (BOS): price broke a recent swing low in the direction of the trend, which usually signals trend continuation.
The most recent swing high is $29.92 and the swing low is $23.35; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 26.92, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of -13.2% and revenue growth of +2.4%.
In its latest quarter it earned $-0.33 per share, which beat the $-0.37 analysts expected, with revenue +0.9% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 3.0 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "hold", with an average price target of $28.50.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 27, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's short / bearish plan uses an entry near $22.39, a target of $21.48 (-4.1%) and a stop-loss at $23.79 (+6.3%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.7 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Sep 24, 2026 whatever the price does.
Research notes
NXRT’s bull case is that occupancy is improving even as profits have been under pressure, which suggests the operating side may be stabilizing. The bear case is that profits are still sliding, short interest is elevated at 8.6% of float, and analysts remain cautious with a consensus Reduce/Hold-leaning view and price targets clustered around the low-to-mid $20s.
A major recent catalyst was the stock making a new 52-week low after a 3.3% drop, reinforcing negative technical momentum. Recent analyst updates also stayed cautious, including Deutsche Bank cutting its target to $23 from $27 while keeping a Hold rating.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans SELL / avoid — composite score -0.17 (WEAK SELL). Technicals: RSI 25.81, MACD bearish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 26.92, margin -13.2%, revenue growth 2.4%. Financial results: YoY revenue +0.9%, last EPS surprise +10.8%, next earnings 2026-10-27. Smart Money Concepts: BOS bearish (trend continuation). FinGPT news read: positive. Internet research: NXRT’s **bull case** is that occupancy is improving even as profits have been under pressure, which suggests the operating side may be stabilizing. The **bear case** is that profits are still sliding, short interest is elevated at **8.6% of float**, and analysts remain cautious with a consensus **Reduce/Hold**-leaning view and price targets clustered around the low-to-mid $20s. A major **recent catalyst** was the stock making a **new 52-week low** after a 3.3% drop, reinforcing negative technical momentum. Recent analyst updates also stayed cautious, including Deutsche Bank cutting its target to **$23 from $27** while keeping a Hold rating. Suggested levels: entry $22.39, target $21.48, stop-loss $23.79, exit by 2026-09-24 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for NXRT
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | WEAK SELL | 17% | $22.38 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is NXRT a buy right now?
As of Sep 14, 2026, our automated model rates NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc (NXRT) WEAK SELL with 17% confidence: the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for NXRT?
The model's most recent plan targets $21.48 with a stop-loss at $23.79, from an entry near $22.39.
When does NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 27, 2026.
What does a WEAK SELL rating mean?
A WEAK SELL rating means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.