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Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) stock analysis
WEAK SELL 15% confidence · analysed Oct 5, 2026
On Oct 5, 2026, our model rated Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) WEAK SELL with 15% confidence at a price of $15.85. That means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 18, below 30, which is oversold territory: sellers have pushed hard recently. Oversold stocks often bounce, but they can stay weak for a while.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of a downtrend.
Volume is only 0.3x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure shows a bearish change of character (CHoCH): the first break against the prevailing trend, an early hint of a possible reversal.
The most recent swing high is $23.10 and the swing low is $16.07; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bearish order block, a zone where large sellers stepped in before, so upside may stall here.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 1.39, which looks reasonably priced for its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 1.9% and revenue growth of +0.5%.
In its latest quarter it earned $1.07 per share, which beat the $1.05 analysts expected, with revenue +0.5% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 1.5 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "strong buy", with an average price target of $28.25.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 29, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's short / bearish plan uses an entry near $15.79, a target of $15.08 (-4.5%) and a stop-loss at $16.93 (+7.2%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.6 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 15, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans SELL / avoid — composite score -0.15 (WEAK SELL). Technicals: RSI 18.18, MACD bearish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 1.39, margin 1.9%, revenue growth 0.5%. Financial results: YoY revenue +0.5%, last EPS surprise +1.9%, next earnings 2026-10-29. Smart Money Concepts: CHoCH bearish (possible trend reversal down), price retesting a bearish order block. Suggested levels: entry $15.79, target $15.08, stop-loss $16.93, exit by 2026-10-15 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for UPBD
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | WEAK SELL | 15% | $15.85 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is UPBD a buy right now?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our automated model rates Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) WEAK SELL with 15% confidence: the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for UPBD?
The model's most recent plan targets $15.08 with a stop-loss at $16.93, from an entry near $15.79.
When does Upbound Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 29, 2026.
What does a WEAK SELL rating mean?
A WEAK SELL rating means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.