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Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 13% confidence · analysed Aug 27, 2026
This analysis is from Aug 27, 2026 and may be out of date.
On Aug 27, 2026, our model rated Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) WEAK BUY with 13% confidence at a price of $31.50. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 51, close to the neutral 50 line, so momentum is balanced.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price is above its 50-day moving average but still below the 200-day: a short-term recovery inside a longer-term downtrend.
Volume is only 0.1x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $52.10 and the swing low is $23.97; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bearish order block, a zone where large sellers stepped in before, so upside may stall here.
Fundamentals
The company reports a profit margin of 4.7% and revenue growth of +42.3%.
In its latest quarter it earned $0.57 per share, which beat the $0.55 analysts expected, with revenue +41.7% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.1 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $40.60.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 3, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $31.09, a target of $33.06 (+6.3%) and a stop-loss at $27.94 (-10.1%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.6 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Sep 6, 2026 whatever the price does.
Research notes
Bull case: Upstart’s bulls point to improving lender confidence, stronger platform performance, and the company’s push into secured credit and a future bank launch**, which could improve funding access and support more origination growth. Several sources also say the stock screens as materially undervalued on fair-value models, with price targets clustered around the low-to-mid $40s and some bullish calls as high as $80.
Bear case:** The bearish view is that Upstart still looks expensive on traditional valuation checks, analyst opinion is split, and the stock has had weak momentum, including a roughly 55% drop over the past 12 months and a large gap from its 52-week high. Execution risk remains the main concern: investors want proof that AI-driven underwriting can translate into sustained profitability rather than just periodic revenue spikes.
Recent catalyst:** The most recent catalyst was a broad fintech rally tied to a retreat in long-end Treasury yields after a U.S. Treasury buyback announcement, which helped lift UPST sharply in intraday trading. More recently, analyst coverage has stayed constructive overall, with multiple firms reiterating buy ratings and the average target around the low-$40s.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.13 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 51.39, MACD bullish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: margin 4.7%, revenue growth 42.3%. Financial results: YoY revenue +41.7%, last EPS surprise +3.6%, next earnings 2026-11-03. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, price retesting a bearish order block. FinGPT news read: positive. Internet research: **Bull case:** Upstart’s bulls point to improving lender confidence, stronger platform performance, and the company’s push into **secured credit** and a future **bank launch**, which could improve funding access and support more origination growth. Several sources also say the stock screens as materially undervalued on fair-value models, with price targets clustered around the low-to-mid $40s and some bullish calls as high as $80. **Bear case:** The bearish view is that Upstart still looks expensive on traditional valuation checks, analyst opinion is split, and the stock has had weak momentum, including a roughly 55% drop over the past 12 months and a large gap from its 52-week high. Execution risk remains the main concern: investors want proof that AI-driven underwriting can translate into sustained profitability rather than just periodic revenue spikes. **Recent catalyst:** The most recent catalyst was a broad fintech rally tied to a retreat in long-end Treasury yields after a U.S. Treasury buyback announcement, which helped lift UPST sharply in intraday trading. More recently, analyst coverage has stayed constructive overall, with multiple firms reiterating buy ratings and the average target around the low-$40s. Suggested levels: entry $31.09, target $33.06, stop-loss $27.94, exit by 2026-09-06 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for UPST
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 13% | $31.50 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is UPST a buy right now?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our automated model rates Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) WEAK BUY with 13% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for UPST?
The model's most recent plan targets $33.06 with a stop-loss at $27.94, from an entry near $31.09.
When does Upstart Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 3, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.