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Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) stock analysis
WEAK SELL 17% confidence · analysed Oct 5, 2026
On Oct 5, 2026, our model rated Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) WEAK SELL with 17% confidence at a price of $261.69. That means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 44. Momentum is soft: below the neutral 50 line, but not yet oversold.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price is below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of a downtrend.
Volume is only 0.2x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $297.51 and the swing low is $239.04; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 2.44, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 19.4% and revenue growth of +6.1%.
In its latest quarter it earned $2.84 per share, which beat the $2.80 analysts expected, with revenue +6.1% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 3.2 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "hold", with an average price target of $300.64.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 23, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's short / bearish plan uses an entry near $262.73, a target of $256.32 (-2.4%) and a stop-loss at $272.65 (+3.8%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.6 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 15, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans SELL / avoid — composite score -0.17 (WEAK SELL). Technicals: RSI 44.17, MACD bearish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 2.44, margin 19.4%, revenue growth 6.1%. Financial results: YoY revenue +6.1%, last EPS surprise +1.4%, next earnings 2026-10-23. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, sitting inside an unfilled bearish fair value gap. Memory: 3 prior look(s); 67% of directional calls matched later price. Suggested levels: entry $262.73, target $256.32, stop-loss $272.65, exit by 2026-10-15 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for ITW
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | WEAK SELL | 17% | $261.69 | — | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | SKIP | 7% | $257.57 | +1.6% | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 15% | $267.07 | -2.0% | ✘ wrong direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
Recent news on ITW
- Oct 13, 2026: Arch Lending Backs the Nation's First Community-Run Bitcoin Reserve (PR Newswire)
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Frequently asked questions
Is ITW a buy right now?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our automated model rates Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) WEAK SELL with 17% confidence: the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for ITW?
The model's most recent plan targets $256.32 with a stop-loss at $272.65, from an entry near $262.73.
When does Illinois Tool Works Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 23, 2026.
What does a WEAK SELL rating mean?
A WEAK SELL rating means the signals lean negative, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.