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Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 20% confidence · analysed Oct 13, 2026
On Oct 13, 2026, our model rated Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) WEAK BUY with 20% confidence at a price of $39.38. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 70, above 70, which is overbought: buyers have been very aggressive and a pause or pullback is common from here.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.
Volume is only 0.8x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $42.53 and the swing low is $31.15; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 0.33, which looks cheap relative to its expected growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 9.8% and revenue growth of +35.6%.
In its latest quarter it earned $1.55 per share, which missed the $1.58 analysts expected, with revenue +35.6% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.9 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "hold", with an average price target of $40.43.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 4, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $39.54, a target of $40.43 (+2.3%) and a stop-loss at $37.06 (-6.3%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.4 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 23, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.20 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 70.45, MACD bullish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 0.33, margin 9.8%, revenue growth 35.6%. Financial results: YoY revenue +35.6%, last EPS surprise -1.9%, next earnings 2026-11-04. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure. FinGPT news read: positive. Memory: 27 prior look(s); 96% of directional calls matched later price. Suggested levels: entry $39.54, target $40.43, stop-loss $37.06, exit by 2026-10-23 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for MUR
Of the last 6 directional calls on MUR, 6 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (100%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 20% | $39.38 | — | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 20% | $38.68 | +1.8% | ✔ right direction |
| Oct 9, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 22% | $38.60 | +2.0% | ✔ right direction |
| Oct 1, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 14% | $37.65 | +4.6% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 30, 2026 | SKIP | 6% | $35.95 | +9.5% | |
| Sep 29, 2026 | SKIP | 5% | $36.65 | +7.4% | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | SKIP | 1% | $36.69 | +7.3% | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | SKIP | 5% | $36.21 | +8.8% | |
| Sep 23, 2026 | SKIP | 8% | $36.33 | +8.4% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 28% | $37.69 | +4.5% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 17, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 28% | $37.92 | +3.9% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 16, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 19% | $38.39 | +2.6% | ✔ right direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is MUR a buy right now?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our automated model rates Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) WEAK BUY with 20% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for MUR?
The model's most recent plan targets $40.43 with a stop-loss at $37.06, from an entry near $39.54.
When does Murphy Oil Corp report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 4, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.