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Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) stock analysis
SKIP 6% confidence · analysed Oct 13, 2026
On Oct 13, 2026, our model rated Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) SKIP with 6% confidence at a price of $238.63. That means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 56, showing healthy upward momentum without being stretched.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price has slipped below its 50-day moving average but is still above the 200-day: a pullback inside a longer-term uptrend.
Volume is only 0.7x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $287.40 and the swing low is $215.84; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 11.95, which looks expensive relative to its growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 7.8% and revenue growth of +33.4%.
In its latest quarter it earned $3.69 per share, which beat the $3.67 analysts expected, with revenue +33.4% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.0 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $270.82.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 19, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Research notes
The bull case is improving earnings momentum: analysts expect Q3 EPS near $5.40, roughly double the year-ago figure, on revenue of about $6.1–$6.5 billion, while the consensus rating remains “Moderate Buy” with an average target near $257. The bear case is that Steel Dynamics issued Q3 EPS guidance below expectations, and JPMorgan cut its target to $260 while maintaining a Hold rating, highlighting valuation and execution risk. The major near-term catalyst is the Q3 earnings release after the October 19 close, with options implying an approximately 2.9% move. With shares recently around $238 and up 0.5% from the prior $239.14 view, the latest price action is broadly consistent with the previous positive stance, though the below-consensus guidance tempers the case.
The model's one-paragraph read
No clear edge (SKIP) — composite score +0.06 (SKIP). Technicals: RSI 56.19, MACD bullish, price below SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 11.95, margin 7.8%, revenue growth 33.4%. Financial results: YoY revenue +33.4%, last EPS surprise +0.5%, next earnings 2026-10-19. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, sitting inside an unfilled bearish fair value gap. FinGPT news read: neutral. Memory: 3 prior look(s); 0% of directional calls matched later price. Internet research: The **bull case** is improving earnings momentum: analysts expect Q3 EPS near $5.40, roughly double the year-ago figure, on revenue of about $6.1–$6.5 billion, while the consensus rating remains “Moderate Buy” with an average target near $257. The **bear case** is that Steel Dynamics issued Q3 EPS guidance below expectations, and JPMorgan cut its target to $260 while maintaining a Hold rating, highlighting valuation and execution risk. The major near-term catalyst is the Q3 earnings release after the October 19 close, with options implying an approximately 2.9% move. With shares recently around $238 and up 0.5% from the prior $239.14 view, the latest price action is broadly consistent with the previous positive stance, though the below-consensus guidance tempers the case. Reference price $240.12; no trade levels (SKIP).
Past ratings for STLD
Of the last 2 directional calls on STLD, 0 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (0%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | SKIP | 6% | $238.63 | — | |
| Sep 15, 2026 | SKIP | 10% | $238.05 | +0.2% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 12% | $240.00 | -0.6% | ✘ wrong direction |
| Sep 2, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 16% | $245.33 | -2.7% | ✘ wrong direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is STLD a buy right now?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our automated model rates Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) SKIP with 6% confidence: the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
When does Steel Dynamics Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 19, 2026.
What does a SKIP rating mean?
A SKIP rating means the signals cancel out; the model sees no clear edge either way.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.