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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 25% confidence · analysed Oct 13, 2026
On Oct 13, 2026, our model rated Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) WEAK BUY with 25% confidence at a price of $444.35. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 46, close to the neutral 50 line, so momentum is balanced.
MACD is below its signal line, so short-term momentum is pointing down.
The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.
Volume is about normal (0.9x the 20-day average).
Trend structure and money flow
Market structure: ranging / no clear structure.
The most recent swing high is $477.72 and the swing low is $371.72; traders often treat these as resistance and support.
Price is sitting in a bullish order block, a zone where large buyers stepped in before.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 0.86, which looks cheap relative to its expected growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 49.9% and revenue growth of +36.0%.
In its latest quarter it earned $4.31 per share, which beat the $3.89 analysts expected, with revenue +36.0% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 1.4 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "strong buy", with an average price target of $578.22.
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 15, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $442.66, a target of $463.62 (+4.7%) and a stop-loss at $420.62 (-5.0%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 1.0 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Oct 14, 2026 whatever the price does.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.25 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 47.66, MACD bearish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 0.85, margin 49.9%, revenue growth 36.0%. Financial results: YoY revenue +36.0%, last EPS surprise +10.8%, next earnings 2026-10-15. Smart Money Concepts: ranging / no clear structure, price retesting a bullish order block. FinGPT news read: neutral. Memory: 8 prior look(s); 0% of directional calls matched later price. Suggested levels: entry $442.66, target $463.62, stop-loss $420.62, exit by 2026-10-14 (exit before next earnings (2026-10-15) -- this signal doesn't price in that report).
Past ratings for TSM
Of the last 6 directional calls on TSM, 1 pointed the right way by the most recent analysis (17%). Past calls do not guarantee future results.
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 25% | $444.35 | — | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 30% | $453.31 | -2.0% | ✘ wrong direction |
| Oct 9, 2026 | SKIP | 7% | $457.99 | -3.0% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 32% | $455.17 | -2.4% | ✘ wrong direction |
| Sep 30, 2026 | BUY | 36% | $456.94 | -2.8% | ✘ wrong direction |
| Sep 29, 2026 | BUY | 41% | $452.88 | -1.9% | ✘ wrong direction |
| Sep 28, 2026 | BUY | 43% | $444.33 | +0.0% | ✔ right direction |
| Sep 24, 2026 | BUY | 36% | $446.57 | -0.5% | ✘ wrong direction |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
Recent news on TSM
- Oct 14, 2026: TSMC shares rise ahead of closely watched Q3 earnings (Investing.com)
- Oct 13, 2026: Taiwan agrees to buy 30% of gas from Alaska LNG project, Trump says (CNBC)
- Oct 13, 2026: TSMC’s September sales surge year-over-year as AI drives chip demand (CNBC Earnings)
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Frequently asked questions
Is TSM a buy right now?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our automated model rates Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur (TSM) WEAK BUY with 25% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for TSM?
The model's most recent plan targets $463.62 with a stop-loss at $420.62, from an entry near $442.66.
When does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactur report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Oct 15, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.