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Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) stock analysis
WEAK BUY 29% confidence · analysed Aug 25, 2026
This analysis is from Aug 25, 2026 and may be out of date.
On Aug 25, 2026, our model rated Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) WEAK BUY with 29% confidence at a price of $6.61. That means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
Technical picture
The 14-day RSI is 59, showing healthy upward momentum without being stretched.
MACD is above its signal line, a sign that short-term momentum is turning up.
The price is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the classic picture of an uptrend.
Volume is only 0.1x its 20-day average; light trading makes the latest move less convincing.
Fundamentals
The PEG ratio is 0.78, which looks cheap relative to its expected growth.
The company reports a profit margin of 2.3% and revenue growth of +21.9%.
In its latest quarter it earned $0.30 per share, which beat the $0.24 analysts expected, with revenue +10.3% year over year.
Wall Street's average rating is 2.0 on a 1 (strong buy) to 5 (sell) scale, roughly a "buy", with an average price target of $6.72.
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 11, 2026; prices often move sharply around earnings.
Trade plan from the model
The model's long / bullish plan uses an entry near $6.59, a target of $6.72 (+2.0%) and a stop-loss at $6.13 (-7.0%).
That is a reward-to-risk ratio of about 0.3 to 1: the potential loss is bigger than the gain, a weak setup.
The plan has a time limit: reassess by Sep 4, 2026 whatever the price does.
Research notes
UGP’s bull case** is that Ultrapar is showing stronger fundamentals, with Q2 2026 delivering a 25.3% EPS beat, 27.8% revenue growth, and 49.5% EPS growth year over year, while the stock still screens at a relatively modest forward P/E of about 11.3x. Analyst sentiment has also improved, with UBS and Bank of America raising targets to $7.20 and $7.40, and the stock recently hit a new 52-week high.
The bear case** is that the easy upside may already be priced in, since UGP has moved above the reported $6.723 consensus target, and the broader analyst average target of $6.32 was below the stock’s recent trading level in one market update. That leaves less room for multiple expansion if earnings momentum slows, even though the balance sheet appears reasonably manageable with debt-to-equity of 0.74 and current ratio of 1.64.
Recent catalyst:** the main near-term catalyst was the strong Q2 2026 earnings report, which extended Ultrapar’s streak of beating EPS estimates for four straight quarters and pushed the shares to fresh highs.
The model's one-paragraph read
Leans BUY — composite score +0.29 (WEAK BUY). Technicals: RSI 59.28, MACD bullish, price above SMA50. Fundamentals: PEG 0.78, margin 2.3%, revenue growth 21.9%. Financial results: YoY revenue +10.3%, last EPS surprise +25.0%, next earnings 2026-11-11. FinGPT news read: positive. Internet research: **UGP’s bull case** is that Ultrapar is showing stronger fundamentals, with Q2 2026 delivering a 25.3% EPS beat, 27.8% revenue growth, and 49.5% EPS growth year over year, while the stock still screens at a relatively modest forward P/E of about 11.3x. Analyst sentiment has also improved, with UBS and Bank of America raising targets to $7.20 and $7.40, and the stock recently hit a new 52-week high. **The bear case** is that the easy upside may already be priced in, since UGP has moved above the reported $6.723 consensus target, and the broader analyst average target of $6.32 was below the stock’s recent trading level in one market update. That leaves less room for multiple expansion if earnings momentum slows, even though the balance sheet appears reasonably manageable with debt-to-equity of 0.74 and current ratio of 1.64. **Recent catalyst:** the main near-term catalyst was the strong Q2 2026 earnings report, which extended Ultrapar’s streak of beating EPS estimates for four straight quarters and pushed the shares to fresh highs. Suggested levels: entry $6.59, target $6.72, stop-loss $6.13, exit by 2026-09-04 (10-calendar-day max hold (time-stop; reassess by this date regardless of P&L)).
Past ratings for UGP
| Date | Verdict | Confidence | Price | Move since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | WEAK BUY | 29% | $6.61 | — |
"Move since" compares each call's price with the latest analysed price.
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Frequently asked questions
Is UGP a buy right now?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our automated model rates Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) WEAK BUY with 29% confidence: the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low. This is a model output for education, not personal investment advice.
What is the price target for UGP?
The model's most recent plan targets $6.72 with a stop-loss at $6.13, from an entry near $6.59.
When does Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne report earnings next?
The next earnings report is expected around Nov 11, 2026.
What does a WEAK BUY rating mean?
A WEAK BUY rating means the signals lean positive, but they are mixed, so conviction is low.
For information and education only. Not investment advice. Ratings are produced by an automated model, can be wrong, and may be out of date. Do your own research; you can lose money investing. The site's author may hold positions in stocks discussed here.